Again With These Guys: Yankees vs. Red Sox AL Wild Card Series Preview

For the second season in a row, the American League East’s top rivals will square off in a best-of-three Wild Card Series in the Bronx. This matchup, though, is hardly a carbon copy of the last one, when the Yankees advanced thanks to rookie Cam Schlittler’s dominant Game 3 performance. For one thing, both the Yankees (93-68) and Red Sox (87-75) have experienced some turnover, and each may be without one of their biggest superstars. At this writing, the Yankees are expected to go without Aaron Judge, who played in just seven games between returning from a stress fracture in his right first rib that cost him all of June, July, and August, and a right calf strain that sent him back to the injured list retroactive to September 17. The Red Sox are still evaluating whether 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet will be part of their bullpen; he hasn’t pitched in a competitive game since April 25 due to shoulder capsule inflammation and a subsequent lat strain, and did not have time to rebuild to a starter’s pitch count.

Beyond that intrigue, these are hardly the offensive juggernauts of yesteryear. Last October’s matchup pitted the AL’s highest-scoring team (the Yankees, 5.24 runs per game) against the third-highest scoring (the Red Sox, 4.85 runs per games), but this year’s pair respectively ranks second (4.59 runs per game, 101 wRC+) and 10th (4.25 runs per game, 99 wRC+). Instead, these are the league’s top two teams in terms of run prevention, with the Yankees allowing 3.73 runs per game and the Red Sox 3.77.

For both teams, this was a tale of two seasons. After the Red Sox skidded to a 10-17 start, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow fired manager Alex Cora — who guided the Red Sox past the Yankees during the 2018 and ’21 postseasons, with a championship in the first of those years — and shook up the coaching staff. Under interim manager Chad Tracy, the Red Sox reached the season’s halfway point with a 35-46 record before climbing above .500 during a franchise record-tying 15-game winning streak from July 3–22. Though they went just 12-12 in September amid injuries, Tracy was rewarded last week with a three-year contract and the removal of the interim tag from his title. The team has gone 77-58 on his watch.

The Yankees were 36-23 and just 1.5 games behind the Rays in the AL East when Judge went down; at that point, both their 5.17 runs per game and 116 wRC+ led the AL. Since then, even including Judge’s abbreviated return, they’ve gone 57-45, scoring just 4.25 runs per game (11th in the AL) with just a 93 wRC+ (14th). Judge went just 4-for-23 with one walk and 13 strikeouts during that seven-game stretch. Both he and manager Aaron Boone initially skirted any description of the injury’s specificity or severity before the Yankees revealed the slugger had suffered a “moderate” calf strain. Last Tuesday, a day after Judge received a platelet-poor-plasma injection, Boone said he didn’t expect Judge to be part of the Wild Card Series roster. The slugger has maintained his intention to be ready, but as of Sunday morning, Boone said that Judge had only done “rehab stuff” this weekend: “He started to do some plyos… I know he was on the treadmill a little bit yesterday, so not a whole lot yet.” Given how bad Judge looked earlier this month, and the likelihood he would be confined to DH duty, which would have a ripple effect on the lineup, I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Willis Reed moment.

Rotations

Run prevention is the reason the Yankees were able to win 93 games despite Judge’s prolonged absence and the offense’s drought. Yankees starters posted the majors’ lowest ERA (3.30) despite Cole and Carlos Rodón starting the season on the injured list as they recovered from elbow surgeries (Tommy John for the former, bone spur and loose bodies removal for the latter). Schlittler and Will Warren were New York’s only starters to take more than 25 turns.

After giving consideration to starting Fried in Game 1 — a role he fulfilled last year, when he threw 6 1/3 shutout innings, only to see the bullpen undo his stellar work in a 3-1 loss — and Schlittler in Game 2, the Yankees decided to give Schlittler the ball in Tuesday’s opener and have Fried start Game 2. Though the Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease kept the race close, the 25-year-old Schlittler made an overwhelming case for the AL Cy Young Award by leading the league in fWAR, bWAR (7.1), ERA, and xERA, and ranking a very close second in FIP, innings, strikeouts, and strikeout-walk differential — all in his first full major league season. Schlittler’s four-seamer gets the headlines, and rightly so; its 98.0-mph average velocity is second only to that of the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski this year and the fifth-highest of the Statcast era. Batters hit just .163 and slugged .263 against the pitch with a 34.8% whiff rate; its 28-run value rnked second, one run behind The Miz. Schlittler’s sinker is similarly stifling, and his cutter a very effective weapon against lefties, who hit .188 and slugged .316 against the pitch while whiffing on 21.2% of their swings. The Walpole, Massachusetts native feeds off the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, and given last year’s eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts in the deciding game of the series, he’s shown that even when the stakes are at their highest, his emotions won’t get in his way.

Fried missed about 12 weeks due to a recurrent bone bruise in his left elbow, but when he was available, he pitched even better than he did last year, when he was the Yankees’ top starter. He was elite at preventing hard contact, allowing just four homers in his 112 2/3 innings. Both his 85.9-mph average exit velocity and 29.8% hard-hit rate placed in the 96th percentile, with his 2.7% barrel rate in the 99th. His cutter, curve, and changeup, all of which he throws primarily to righties, each held batters to a .226 slugging or lower with whiff rates of 26.9% or higher; meanwhile lefties slugged just .302 against his sinker, which he threw them nearly half the time. Lefties and righties combined to go just 1-for-32 against Fried’s sweeper.

Cole made an uneven return this season from his March 2025 Tommy John surgery, putting up a 2.66 ERA and a 2.64 FIP in July and August, with eight quality starts in 10 turns; he gave up just six homers in those 61 innings, but served up 16 in his 66 innings on either side of that stretch, with just four quality starts in his other 12 outings. The 36-year-old righty’s four-seamer averaged 96.8 mph, nearly a full mile per hour faster than before surgery, but his knuckle curve was hammered for a .286 average and .540 slugging percentage, with its whiff rate dropping from 30.1% in 2024 to 20.5% in ’26. He’s shown signs of righting the ship in his last two starts, though it’s fair to wonder if the Yankees aren’t making a mistake by bypassing Rodón, who has pitched very well in limited duty this season, with a 1.89 ERA and a 3.44 FIP since returning from a six-week absence due to elbow inflammation.

On the other side, the Red Sox waited until Monday to announce that Tolle would take the ball in Game 1, with Gray to follow in Game 2. Tolle, a 23-year-old rookie who placed 18th on our Top 100 Prospects list as a 55-FV prospect in the spring, has been the team’s top starter in terms of FIP, WAR, and strikeout rate. The 6-foot-6, 250-pound southpaw has a 96-mph four-seamer that particularly befuddles righties, holding them to a .173 average and .291 slugging percentage with a 28.2% whiff rate this season. Batters of both hands combined to hit .157 and slug .271 with a 43.4% whiff rate against his curve, and a .229 average and a .352 slugging percentage with a 28.3% whiff rate against his cutter. He dominated the Yankees in two first-half starts, holding them to four hits and one run while striking out 18 in 13 innings.

Gray, who was traded from the Cardinals to the Red Sox last November, posted his lowest ERA since his 64-inning rookie season, that while adopting a more contact-oriented approach. He increased the usage of his cutter at the expense of his four-seamer and traded some strikeouts for grounders; while both his FIP and xERA were nearly identical to last season’s marks, he lowered his ERA by a run and a half per nine. Batters hit just .217 with a .299 slugging percentage against his sinker, and batted .137 with a .236 slugging and a 38.3% whiff rate against his sweeper. The 36-year-old righty really enjoys pitching against the Yankees, for whom he scuffled in 2017–18; he no-hit them for 7 1/3 inning on June 28.

Suarez, whom the Red Sox signed to a five-year, $140 million deal in January, put up nearly identical numbers to those from his final year in Philadelphia, though an uptick in his pulled-air rate (from 15.1% to 17.7%) rates as a slight concern. The sinkerballer did adjust his approach somewhat, throwing more four-seamers and fewer changeups, particularly to lefties. Batters hit .223 and slugged .235 without a homer against the “heater” (which averaged just 91.5 mph), and slugged .380 or lower against every pitch of his except the changeup. His curve (thrown more to righties) and slider (thrown more to lefties) produced whiff rates of 37.6% and 45.6%, respectively.

Bullpens

The Red Sox and Yankees had the majors’ two lowest bullpen ERAs (2.99 and 3.15, respectively), with the former leading the majors in FIP (3.52) and the latter fourth in the AL in that category (3.92). With this short series, both teams will likely find room in the bullpen for a back-end starter or two, and possibly a rehabbing one who couldn’t build up his pitch count in time — and that’s just part of the shadow cast upon both by injuries.

For the Yankees, Bednar has been a reliable closer since being acquired from the Pirates at the 2025 trade deadline (Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, both acquired the same day, were dealt away at this deadline). Bednar’s splitter — which averaged 90.8 mph, providing a good contrast to a four-seamer that averaged 96.1 mph — is nearly untouchable; batters hit .149 and slugged .189 against it with a 35.2% whiff rate. With the loss of Fernando Cruz to a minor UCL tear, Headrick is now the top setup man. After totaling just 51 2/3 major league innings over the three seasons prior to this one, he emerged as a very effective late-game arm thanks to a slider that generated a 47.6% whiff rate. He had a substantial reverse split, with a .330 wOBA allowed against lefties and a .269 mark against righties; same-side hitters slugged well above .500 against both his four-seamer and sinker, but righties did much less damage. Blackburn, who had never spent a full season in a bullpen prior to this one, brought a starter’s arsenal to the role, mainly going sinker-cutter-sweeper against righties (whom he held to a .238 wOBA) and changeup-curve-cutter-sinker against lefties (while holding them to a .283 wOBA).

Hill, a lefty specialist, was rocked for seven homers in just 104 plate appearances against righties, though he was able to get nearly identical groundball rates just below 69% against batters of both hands. Weathers and Warren are starters who could find work here. Weathers pitched very well before suffering a flexor strain in late August; he did not go on a rehab assignment but has been throwing live batting practice sessions. Warren, who was exceptional through the first two months of the season and in September, could provide length if a starter has to take an early exit. With Clarke Schmidt shut down due to biceps neuritis just after returning from Tommy John surgery, two righties who were late-August pickups, Michael Fulmer (released by the Angels) and John Schreiber (picked off waivers from the Royals), could be in the bullpen mix as well.

For the Red Sox, Chapman is coming off one of his best seasons at age 38, having converted 35 out of 37 save chances. His four-seamer isn’t quite what it used to be — the pitch averaged 96.9 mph, down from 98.4 mph last year — but his sinker, slider, and splitter (the last of those mainly for righties) are the better pitches anyway, with batters hitting .129 or lower and slugging .224 or lower against all three, with whiff rates of 30.8% on the sinker, 41.3% on the splitter, and 47.1% on the slider. Whitlock, who set career bests in ERA, FIP, and walk rate this year, held lefties to a .239 wOBA and righties to a .224 wOBA. Miller, a deadline pickup from the Giants, helped cover for the loss of Justin Slaten to elbow inflammation. He’s reworked his approach from one centered around a four-seamer and changeup to one that’s mostly sinker-slider. While his walk rate was uncomfortably high, he did a great job of suppressing hard contact, with an 84.7-mph average exit velo and 26.3% hard-hit rate.

Bello, who put up a 7.18 ERA as a starter but a 1.98 mark as a reliever, mostly while pitching behind an opener, can provide length. Crochet, who spent parts of three seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the White Sox before moving to the rotation, has been reaching 96 mph while throwing live batting practice and could be part of the high-leverage mix if the Red Sox deem him ready.

Offenses

While the Yankees ranked second in the AL in home runs and stolen bases, and third in walk rate, theirs was a middling offense on the whole, with the league’s fourth-lowest batting average and third-lowest on-base percentage. The team did rank third in wRC+ against lefties, compared to ninth against righties. Though Ben Rice has emerged as one of the game’s top hitters, the rest of the Yankees’ offense is particularly pedestrian without Judge. Rice hit .264/.363/.534, ranking second in the AL in slugging percentage and fourth in both homers (41) and wRC+ (149) while splitting his time between DH and first base. From there it’s a substantial step down to their next-best hitters, deadline acquisition Luis García Jr. (.277/.309/.521, 124 wRC+) and Cody Bellinger (.264/.338/.429, 115 wRC+). García has taken over first base duties against righties, against whom he posted a 133 wRC+ (compared to 80 against lefties), with Paul Goldschmidt handling the job against lefties. The 38-year-old Goldschmidt hit .252/.313/.452 (111 wRC+) with 18 home runs; though seven of those came against righties, he produced just a 60 wRC+ vs. them, compared to a 168 wRC+ against lefties.

Beyond that group, Jazz Chisholm Jr. turned in a disappointing season on the offensive side, hitting just .231/.312/.399 (99 wRC+) with 19 homers and a barrel rate that plummeted from 15.0% in 2025 to 8.2% this year, though his career-high 41 stolen bases ranked third in the AL. He’s just returned from a right thumb sprain. The Yankees’ third base platoon of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario (with some José Caballero thrown in) combined for a 74 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR, rating as the biggest trouble spot at the position among AL contenders. The Yankees may instead turn to Anthony Volpe, who made his first major league appearance at third base on Friday but didn’t handle a single chance, to handle the hot corner. While recovering from October 2025 surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, Volpe was bumped off shortstop and into a utility role; his .245/.321/.336 (88 wRC+) looks robust compared to the other options, though Caballero (.231/.290/.365, 83 wRC+) did steal 34 bases. Rookie shortstop George Lombard Jr., who debuted on August 4 after just 56 games at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, hit .237/.285/.414 (93 wRC+) with seven homers.

Catcher Austin Wells was lousy on the offensive side (.186/.292/.332, 72 wRC+), and Heliot Ramos, a deadline acquisition from the Giants, began his time in pinstripes by going 5-for-47; he hit .245/.305/.411 (99 wRC+) overall. On the other hand, rookie Spencer Jones has been a pleasant surprise, slashing .245/.313/.429 (106 wRC+) with 11 homers and 10 steals to offset a 36.3% strikeout rate; he’s held down center field in the absence of the injured Trent Grisham, who’s been out since September 5 due to a Grade 2 right hamstring strain but may be in play for a roster spot.

If Judge does return, he’d likely be consigned to DH duty, which would reduce both García and Goldschmidt to bench roles. Also in the mix for a bench spot is Giancarlo Stanton, who played just 24 games and hit .256/.302/.422 (102 wRC+) with three home runs before being sidelined by a moderate-grade right calf strain; he suffered a setback in the same calf in June, then strained his other calf in a fall in August. He’s been taking live batting practice, and could serve as a high-leverage pinch-hitter for Wells or one of the third basemen.

Boston’s offense ranked fourth in on-base percentage, fifth in batting average, and sixth in stolen bases, but just 12th in home runs. The team comes into this series with a lot of generally positive news on the injury front. On Sunday, first baseman Willson Contreras played his first game since September 17 and his fifth of the month after missing time due to a left hamstring strain and a hit-by-pitch-induced bruised knuckle on his right hand. He’s the team’s top hitter, having batted .275/.386/.516 (151 wRC+) with 27 homers. Also on Sunday, center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, who missed three weeks due to a right quad strain, played his third game since returning; he had played a pair against the Guardians on Wednesday and Thursday before sitting out Friday’s doubleheader against against the Cubs with right hamstring tightness. Rafaela put together a breakout season, batting .283/.319/.442 with 16 homers, 17 steals, and career highs in both wRC+ (109) and WAR (4.1).

Meanwhile, left fielder Roman Anthony and shortstop Trevor Story both returned from prolonged absences on August 30 and have been much more productive than they were prior to their injuries, though small-sample caveats apply. Anthony, who missed nearly four months due to a torn tendon in his right ring finger, has slashed .262/.321/.4765 (119 wRC+) since returning. Story has hit .292/.322/.442 (108 wRC+) after missing three and a half months due to surgery to repair a sports hernia. Of more concern, catcher Adley Rutschman, who was on the injured list due to left wrist inflammation when he was dealt to the Red Sox as part of a seven-player blockbuster at the trade deadline, has hit just .222/.278/.410 (88 wRC+) after batting .251/.331/.433 (116 wRC+) before the trade. The team will miss DH/catcher/first baseman Mickey Gasper, who hit a potent .251/.357/.466 (130 wRC+) with 10 homers in just 225 plate appearances; his season may be done due to a right biceps injury. That likely means Jarren Duran, who has hit just .207/.266/.361 (69 wRC+) during what’s been a rough season, will start in left field against righties while Anthony serves as the DH. Jahmai Jones, who has hit just .206/.298/.369 (88 wRC+) overall but .308/.408/.585 (176 wRC+) in 76 plate appearances since being traded in mid-July by the Tigers, will start at DH against lefties, with Anthony in the outfield.

Rounding out the lineup are right fielder Wilyer Abreu (.248/.327/.446, 112 wRC+) and third baseman Caleb Durbin (.248/.332/.378, 100 wRC+), with switch-hitting Nick Sogard (.255/.342/.385, 105 wRC+) returning to the keystone after doing the bulk of the first base work during Contreras’ absence.

Defenses

The Yankees are an above-average defensive team, ranking 13th in the majors in DRS (27), 12th in FRV (9), and eighth in Defensive Efficiency (.711). Their biggest strength is pitch-framing, as they ranked third in our framing metric, FRM (8.3), and second in that of Statcast (12). Wells was above-average in both, as was light-hitting backup Ali Sánchez. Rice (-8 DRS, -5 FRV) was rough at first base, which is why DHing him is the Yankees’ preference; García and Goldschmidt were both above-average at the spot by both metrics. Chisholm (-6 DRS, 8 FRV), and Lombard (5 DRS, -2 FRV) had comparatively wide spreads in their metrics, while Rosario was shaky enough as the short half of the third base platoon (-6 DRS, -6 FRV) that the Yankees are willing to consider Volpe even with his minimal experience there.

In the outfield, Bellinger led all left fielders with 21 DRS and shared the lead with 8 FRV. Grisham (-8 DRS, -5 FRV) was enough of a disappointment in center that retaking his job from Jones (-4 DRS, -3 FRV) is no guarantee even if he’s healthy. Ramos, who previously put up double-digit negative marks in one metric or another in left field and center, was pretty wobbly in his limited exposure in right (-5 FRV, -1 DRS in just 146 2/3 innings).

The Red Sox ranked third in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (70) and sixth in Fielding Run Value (22), though just 20th in Defensive Efficiency (.694) and 28th in our framing metric, FRM (-6.3). Their outfield defense is elite. Rafaela led all center fielders in DRS (21) and placed second in FRV (16), and Abreu led right fielders in DRS (28) and tied for seventh in FRV (4), while Duran was solidly above average in left (3 DRS, 4 FRV).

At the infield corners, Durban placed third in DRS (13) and tied for fourth in FRV (6), and Contreras was essentially average at first. In the middle infield, Sogard (-1 DRS, 1 FRV) and Story (-4 DRS, -1 FRV) were close to average in a comparatively small sample; Isiah Kiner-Falefa can offer a defensive upgrade on either of them if the Red Sox are willing to settle for lesser offense.

All told, this is not only a very different looking series from last year and years past, it’s also one that might not entirely come into focus until the final rosters are submitted on Tuesday morning. Still, it’s two storied rivals putting their seasons on the line, and whatever shape they’re in, this should be worth watching.

This article has been updated to reflect the Red Sox’s post-publication announcement of their Game 1 and 2 starters.

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