ZiPS Midseason Movers and Shakers: Hitters
One of the things I try to emphasize when I talk about projections is that they’re not numbers written in stone, but an array of estimates that’s always moving. Each individual plate appearance or inning pitched, while not a needle-mover on its own, adds to our knowledge of a player and very gently changes his career trajectory. Forecasting a player isn’t all that different from forecasting a hurricane, but thankfully, players cause a lot less mayhem. Except maybe Len Koenecke.
It’s been three months since the start of the season, and we have a lot of new information about players. Since we’re approaching the halfway point of the season, and the fact that I’m getting a few dozen chat questions a week about which players have seen their projections change the most, I thought this would be an appropriate time to do an in-season ZiPS run with the full-fat model that is too compute-intensive to run every day. To keep the list relevant to 2026 MLB goings-on, I narrowed it to players who either have played in the majors this year or are one of the 1,232 prospects on The Board. So my apologies to players such as Tre Richardson III, whose projected 2027 OPS+ has improved from 54 to 74. I’ve ranked the players by the largest changes in projected 2027 OPS+ compared to what it was in the preseason.
| Player | Preseason 2027 OPS+ | Up to Date 2027 OPS+ | Diff | Preseason 2027 WAR | Up to Date 2027 WAR | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Salas | 53.6 | 78.9 | 25.4 | 0.05 | 1.41 | 1.36 |
| Luis Lara | 70.0 | 92.3 | 22.3 | 1.14 | 3.07 | 1.92 |
| Jordan Walker | 91.0 | 112.3 | 21.3 | -0.11 | 1.10 | 1.21 |
| Gary Sánchez | 84.1 | 104.2 | 20.1 | 0.39 | 0.94 | 0.55 |
| James Tibbs III | 93.1 | 112.5 | 19.4 | 0.70 | 2.16 | 1.46 |
| Mike Sirota | 83.6 | 102.4 | 18.8 | -0.38 | 0.69 | 1.07 |
| Bryce Eldridge | 110.9 | 129.0 | 18.1 | 1.08 | 2.53 | 1.45 |
| Gage Workman | 87.5 | 105.6 | 18.0 | 0.54 | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 73.2 | 90.2 | 16.9 | 0.49 | 1.95 | 1.47 |
| Ben Rice | 122.7 | 139.6 | 16.9 | 2.33 | 3.57 | 1.24 |
| JJ Bleday | 101.9 | 118.7 | 16.9 | 1.43 | 2.92 | 1.49 |
| Jake Bauers | 109.7 | 126.4 | 16.7 | 0.75 | 1.58 | 0.83 |
| Jonah Cox | 72.0 | 88.6 | 16.5 | 0.79 | 1.72 | 0.92 |
| Austin Hedges | 49.9 | 66.3 | 16.4 | 0.68 | 1.17 | 0.48 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 149.3 | 165.5 | 16.2 | 3.34 | 5.25 | 1.91 |
| Willson Contreras | 111.0 | 126.7 | 15.7 | 1.58 | 2.77 | 1.19 |
| Axiel Plaz | 67.1 | 82.7 | 15.6 | 0.18 | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| Xavier Edwards | 92.0 | 106.9 | 15.0 | 2.58 | 3.86 | 1.29 |
| Curtis Mead | 93.8 | 108.5 | 14.7 | 1.34 | 1.93 | 0.59 |
| Seaver King | 68.7 | 83.3 | 14.6 | 0.58 | 1.35 | 0.77 |
| Josue De Paula | 91.2 | 105.7 | 14.4 | 0.30 | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| Max Muncy | 103.2 | 117.4 | 14.3 | 1.15 | 2.23 | 1.08 |
| Josh Jung | 96.7 | 110.6 | 13.9 | 1.54 | 2.47 | 0.94 |
| Jim Jarvis | 68.4 | 81.6 | 13.2 | 0.42 | 1.38 | 0.96 |
| Ben Ross | 64.8 | 77.8 | 13.0 | -0.58 | 0.22 | 0.80 |
| Sean Keys | 77.8 | 90.6 | 12.8 | 0.31 | 1.07 | 0.76 |
| Mike Trout | 110.1 | 122.7 | 12.6 | 1.17 | 2.42 | 1.25 |
| Dominic Canzone | 108.2 | 120.7 | 12.5 | 0.96 | 1.59 | 0.63 |
| Henry Bolte | 99.5 | 111.9 | 12.4 | 1.64 | 2.67 | 1.04 |
| Jaison Chourio | 72.8 | 84.7 | 12.0 | -0.09 | 0.39 | 0.48 |
It’s nice to see Ethan Salas atop this list. One of the best young catching prospects in baseball, Salas debuted on the ZiPS Top 100 at no. 63 in 2024 and improved to no. 29 on the 2025 list. Then the actual 2025 season happened, and Salas missed almost all of it with a significant back injury. Young catchers are already typically quite volatile when it comes to outlook, and a serious injury was enough to make ZiPS very worried, dropping him out of the Top 100 this past winter. But so far, Salas has put up one of the most exciting comeback years in the minors, hitting .282/.352/.432 for Double-A San Antonio, and he only turned 20 about three weeks ago. He’s out right now with an oblique injury, but it’s not believed to be a big deal.
I wrote about the Milwaukee Brewers last month and discussed how the team has done a terrific job when it comes to aggressively utilizing players who have improved. As if to highlight my piece, an effect that was almost certainly unintended, two weeks later the Brewers and outfielder Luis Lara agreed to a seven-year, $31 million extension that could be worth $79 million with team options. ZiPS was wait-and-see on Lara coming into the season, ranking him as the 177th prospect in baseball, but after debuting in Triple-A with a .313/.426/.447 line at age 21, ZiPS now sees him as a top contender for 2027 NL Rookie of the Year. Unless, that is, he loses his rookie status this year, which is in the realm of possibility.
Jordan Walker’s 2026 season is a good example of why you should give talented players as many opportunities as you can to prove you wrong about them. It wouldn’t be hyperbole to characterize his 2024 and 2025 seasons as nearly unmitigated disasters, and it was really hard to see much hope for him. The patience St. Louis showed has paid off, however, as Walker’s been legitimately excellent this season and looks to be headed for his first All-Star selection. Even his once-notorious defense has continued to improve, and while he’s not going to pull of Pete Crow-Armstrong cosplay in the outfield, he no longer looks like a must-DH player.
Another Brewer, Gary Sánchez, has been terrific, at an age where you shouldn’t expect improvement. Like other new Brewers have done, Sánchez has been displaying the best plate discipline of his career since joining the team. James Tibbs III is slugging nearly .600 for Triple-A Oklahoma City, an impressive performance even after you let all the helium out of the Pacific Coast League numbers.
Arguably the best first base prospect of the last few years, Bryce Eldridge put up a 155 wRC+ in Triple-A, making it hard for the Giants to wait much longer to promote him. They’re struggling to stay out of last place in a division with the Rockies, but that’s hardly Eldridge’s fault, as he’s hit .291/.385/.504 in 37 games with San Francisco. He certainly has the look of a guy who should be a serious offensive force.
Mike Sirota, who is thankfully not a pitcher so I can’t confuse him with Mike Sirotka and Michael Soroka, was on our Picks to Click list this preseason, meaning that our prospect team had an expectation that he could land on the Top 100 list in 2027. That’s looking like a pretty good bet, as the 2023 third-rounder put up a 176 wRC+ in High-A and is running a 168 wRC+ since moving up to Double-A. Ben Rice’s breakout season is proving pretty crucial for the Yankees due to the Aaron Judge injury, and it looks like JJ Bleday may work out as a major leaguer after all. Fully healthy this season, Yordan Alvarez pops up in this list as well, which makes me very happy as a big fan of him.
Austin Hedges has a 97 wRC+ this season! It’s weird to think now, but as a prospect, he was expected to be an actual hitter in the majors, and it even briefly looked like it would happen in 2018. ZiPS isn’t all-in, still only projecting him for a 66 OPS+ in 2027, but since the Guardians have always been quite happy to give him plate appearances, it’s better to have a 66 OPS+ than a 50!
| Player | Preseason 2027 OPS+ | Up to Date 2027 OPS+ | Diff | Preseason 2027 WAR | Up to Date 2027 WAR | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Wynns | 76.6 | 54.7 | -21.9 | 0.25 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| Eduardo Tait | 81.0 | 60.2 | -20.7 | 1.10 | -0.42 | -1.52 |
| Dylan Carlson | 93.9 | 74.1 | -19.9 | 0.95 | -0.36 | -1.31 |
| Rafael Marchán | 75.2 | 56.1 | -19.1 | 0.57 | 0.19 | -0.38 |
| Junior Perez | 88.4 | 69.3 | -19.1 | 1.06 | 0.01 | -1.05 |
| Jahmai Jones | 120.4 | 101.4 | -19.0 | 2.22 | 0.98 | -1.24 |
| Jeral Perez | 84.7 | 66.4 | -18.4 | 1.09 | -0.13 | -1.22 |
| Luis Baez | 79.1 | 61.3 | -17.8 | -0.62 | -1.44 | -0.82 |
| Brock Wilken | 86.6 | 69.6 | -17.0 | 1.08 | 0.25 | -0.83 |
| Edward Duran | 67.6 | 51.7 | -15.8 | 0.01 | -0.73 | -0.74 |
| Ryan Clifford | 107.3 | 91.5 | -15.8 | 1.38 | 0.22 | -1.16 |
| Gabriel Gonzalez | 108.3 | 93.0 | -15.3 | 1.41 | 0.31 | -1.09 |
| Jose Trevino | 71.1 | 56.1 | -15.0 | 1.17 | 0.51 | -0.66 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 99.1 | 84.5 | -14.6 | 0.17 | -0.29 | -0.46 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 132.0 | 117.5 | -14.5 | 5.13 | 4.07 | -1.06 |
| Christopher Morel | 99.4 | 85.1 | -14.3 | 0.66 | -0.28 | -0.94 |
| Luke Keaschall | 114.2 | 100.0 | -14.2 | 2.33 | 1.87 | -0.47 |
| Capri Ortiz | 63.6 | 49.6 | -14.0 | -0.27 | -1.19 | -0.92 |
| Zach Cole | 100.7 | 86.7 | -14.0 | 1.89 | 0.81 | -1.08 |
| Marco Dinges | 78.2 | 64.2 | -14.0 | 0.29 | -0.26 | -0.55 |
| Edgar Quero | 92.8 | 78.8 | -14.0 | 1.39 | 0.43 | -0.96 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 100.6 | 86.9 | -13.7 | 2.95 | 2.15 | -0.81 |
| Bo Naylor | 100.0 | 86.3 | -13.7 | 2.04 | 1.29 | -0.75 |
| Kehden Hettiger | 71.8 | 58.2 | -13.6 | 0.17 | -0.57 | -0.73 |
| Allan Castro | 82.3 | 68.8 | -13.5 | 0.83 | 0.04 | -0.79 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 73.2 | 59.8 | -13.4 | 1.42 | 0.94 | -0.48 |
| Cutter Coffey | 75.0 | 61.6 | -13.4 | 0.38 | -0.45 | -0.83 |
| Nolan Gorman | 105.7 | 92.4 | -13.3 | 2.15 | 1.30 | -0.85 |
| Trea Turner | 106.3 | 93.2 | -13.1 | 2.96 | 2.23 | -0.73 |
| Cam Collier | 81.8 | 68.7 | -13.0 | 0.20 | -0.83 | -1.03 |
Remember how I said catchers are volatile? Lots of catchers make this list, unsurprisingly. Austin Wynns has already received opportunities in a reserve role from two teams this season, but going 4-for-53 with no extra-base hits doesn’t get you a lot of playing time. Considering he’s a 35-year-old Triple-A catcher, ZiPS had limited expectations for him entering this season. Then again, Wynns is about to get his third chance in 2026, as he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers on Tuesday, so he must be doing something right!
Eduardo Tait, unlike Wynn, is an actual prospect, and one that ZiPS liked quite a bit. After joining the Twins as part of last summer’s Jhoan Duran trade, Tait has had easily his worse professional season in 2026. He ranked 30th on the ZiPS Top 100 prospects list this winter and 46th on the FanGraphs Top 100, but if he doesn’t turn things around, he’s going to fall quite a bit. Dylan Carlson’s been around in the majors for a while, but after three lousy seasons, mostly as a fourth/fifth outfielder, he found himself signing a minor league deal with the Cubs coming into 2026. A .600 OPS in Triple-A didn’t change any hearts or minds, and after his second release from the Cubs this year, Carlson signed a minor league deal with the Phillies. Somehow, his OPS with Triple-A Lehigh Valley is even worse, at .515.
Ryan Clifford was actually looking pretty good from a projection perspective early on, but a dreadful .390 OPS in June has dropped his seasonal line to .200/.287/.412, unimpressive for a first baseman/outfielder even if you forget that offense in Triple-A is significantly higher than in the majors. Fernando Tatis Jr. has confused me all season. He’s still making very hard contact, but he didn’t hit his first homer until May 30, and there are going to consequences for that!
I’ll be back tomorrow with the pitchers.